So for those of you who have read my series, The Fall of Man, you'll know that I find geopolitics of interest. I haven't been blogging on the topic mind you, as I've been busy with book stuff, but I figured I'd make a post tonight.
The big question is who is it going to be this year? Trump or Hillary? Who will bring it home?
After seeing the debates in both parties, seeing both conventions and seeing the narratives that have bounced around in the media over the past year, I'm certain that Trump will win the Presidency.
Now, I know some will think that's a crazy prediction. After all, right now it's basically a 50/50 toss-up in the polls.
But that only bolsters my prediction. I mean, how in the world are the Democrats either losing or tied with Trump in the polls?
Let's put that aside though, as well as about 50 other variables that will ultimately favor trump. Instead, let's focus in on just the core ones.
The following reasons (albeit not exclusively and with obvious caveats) will be why Trump wins the presidency:
The big question is who is it going to be this year? Trump or Hillary? Who will bring it home?
After seeing the debates in both parties, seeing both conventions and seeing the narratives that have bounced around in the media over the past year, I'm certain that Trump will win the Presidency.
Now, I know some will think that's a crazy prediction. After all, right now it's basically a 50/50 toss-up in the polls.
But that only bolsters my prediction. I mean, how in the world are the Democrats either losing or tied with Trump in the polls?
Let's put that aside though, as well as about 50 other variables that will ultimately favor trump. Instead, let's focus in on just the core ones.
The following reasons (albeit not exclusively and with obvious caveats) will be why Trump wins the presidency:
- People are angry.
Yep, that's right, people are far angrier than anyone wants to believe. They are furious. And those who aren't furious are afraid. That's how the votes will ultimately get split. Those who are afraid will vote Clinton, those who are furious (at the system, at the economy, at life, etc.) will vote Trump.
Trump is, at his core, nothing but an emotive megaphone for the feelings brewing within the population. It's at the very core of his populism. Hillary, on the other hand, offers only to steady the boat, a reassuring notion for the fearful, but unfortunately, I think their numbers will be less than those that comprise the angry mob.
The "hope" Obama failed to deliver has left people hopeless, and by extension, furious. They want to lash out at the system and they are going to do so through Trump. Many won't admit to this, but when it comes time to "pull the lever", they'll vote Trump. - Nationalism versus Globalism.
Clinton is for globalism, Trump for nationalism / sovereignty. The slogan for this year's election should be "It's the economy stupid!". Nationalists tend to rise during periods of economic pain and suffering (hopefully people haven't forgotten how Hitler rose to power - there's a reason Germany was forgiven reparation debts after WW2, they didn't want to create the fertile ground for another Hitler to rise. ).
Clinton offers no solutions to the offshoring of jobs, while Trump offers to stop it by placing taxes on companies who offshore. Back to our first point, not only do people want to lash out at the political system, they want to lash the corporatist system as well.
Clinton offers to work hand-in-hand with corporate America, while Trump threatens to bash them over the head with a bat. People will choose the latter. - The Intelligensia versus the Proletariat
The BIG mistake the elites and the "system" are making is viewing the average citizen in a dissonant manner. They think they are both too stupid to realize what is happening to them (and hence can be controlled), yet at the same time think they are smart enough to see through Trump's con (which many are not).
Normally when people vote they try to pick the smartest person. Sure, charisma and personality play a role, but so does their belief that the "smart guy" will fix everything.
What the elites are missing is that people are waking up to the fact that they don't know what is going on anymore (voters are realizing / acknowledging their own ignorance). I know, sounds crazy right? But it's really not. People are realizing that they don't know anything. They thought in the past they were picking the right person, but things only got worse regardless. As such, they no longer trust their own analysis of the candidates.
So in this election reason is out the window. They will vote with their emotions (which brings us back to anger as being Trump's ace up his sleeve). They will vote with their "gut" and when it comes to playing to people's emotions, Trump trumps Clinton. - Policy doesn't matter (even if people think it does).
Elections are about policy right? Usually. You vote for whoever will represents beliefs, laws and social program structuring that aligns with your own views.
But not this time.
When the Titanic hits the iceburg there's a period wherein people stay calm and try to work together (let's call that the Obama years). We're way past that point now. We're reaching, in fact may already be in, that moment of panic. No one is listening to the captain, no one is following rules, everyone is just trying to save their ass.
In this environment Clinton is the one yelling for everyone to remain calm. Trump is the one yelling that we need to throw the captain overboard, along with the rest of the crew; a rally cry for mutiny.
Which way do you think the mob will go? They will join the mutiny, no question about it, even if it's not in their best interest.
Policy does NOT matter this election. It mattered when Sanders was running because he was offering a different flavor of mutiny than Trump. But now your choices are to mutiny or not, simple as that. - Hillary's only hope is Trump implodes
The one hope Hillary has in this election is that Trump implodes. That he says something that essentially disqualifies himself as President. Yet, if what he has said so far hasn't disqualified him, nothing will.
If people think "Love trumps hate" this year, they are sorely mistaken. When the movie theater is on fire people predictably panic, rush for the exits and everyone ends up dying when the doors get jammed. They know they shouldn't do it, but they do anyway. It's human nature.
So there you have it, the reasons I think it's almost all but assured Trump will be President. We could go into things like fictional unemployment numbers the government has been publishing over the past eight years, or the anger towards Wall Street that will hurt Clinton, but there are dozens of such points we could toss about which ultimately won't be the deciding factors.
What's really going to move the needle this way or that, this year? It's the things I listed above. It's primarily anger.
If you think people will put aside their anger to serve their own best interests, well, you've got a lot to learn about anger. It is, by its very nature, self-destructive. People will vote for Trump knowing full well it could bring about even more pain than they are already in, but will do so because they are dripping with fury over the state of the world around them.
If you think people will put aside their anger to serve their own best interests, well, you've got a lot to learn about anger. It is, by its very nature, self-destructive. People will vote for Trump knowing full well it could bring about even more pain than they are already in, but will do so because they are dripping with fury over the state of the world around them.
Obviously, Clinton will get votes (as will third parties), but I will be genuinely shocked if she wins this election. This one is Trump's to lose.
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