Way back in July I wrote a blog entry - The hits keep on coming - RIM has a tough week - in which I made the absurd prediction that: It's a bit of a crazy prediction, but I won't be surprised if in a year or two from now if RIM stock is trading down around 15 bucks. I think there's more pain to come.
Well, in less than six months RIM stock fell from $29 in July (at the time I wrote the blog entry) to $17.30 today. While it's not the $15 dollar target, it's close enough for me to say that I came pretty close to the bullseye. I thought it would take at least 12 months, but it's occurred even faster. (And for PR folks out there, I personally believe that at least 50 per cent of that lost value is tied to PR damage the company has taken as opposed to fundamental issues).
I hate seeing RIM fall like this, it's a black eye on all of Canada if you ask me.
There is a positive though
On the positive side I really believe in the Neitzschean concept that "It's only after you've lost everything that you are free to do anything." I wish I could find the actual Neitzsche quote though which is more akin to 'It's only after one has died while alive that one can be reborn and free to truly live for the first time." (I'm going to search for the actual quote and will update at a later time).
The notion behind this saying is that at some point during the growth process one becomes stuck in habitual notions and perspectives that drive decision making. And once something becomes habitual it becomes a trap that limits one's ability to react and move in to the future with a fresh and open perspective and mind.
Really, everything going on the world right now is a function of this phenomena. Politicians, banks, world governments are all trying to tackle the issues we face through habitual forms of decision making as opposed to envisioning a future we wish to have and then figuring out how to make that future a reality. Right now, the decisions we should be making simply run up against too much 'habitual' opposition, we've lost our ability to 'dream' if you will and instead are trapped in a 'process' frame of mind (which is why nothing is getting fixed). This is where we get the notion that we are stuck in a 'system' and that the 'system' is broken - it's really not the system that is broken, but rather our way of thinking (for we are, after all, the system).
Anyway, that's a separate issue. What I'm trying to say about RIM is that the positive thing about their current situation is that they've now lost everything. They haven't gone bankrupt, but they've lost everything that made them who they were - they've lost their market leadership, they've lost their brand, they've lost share value, they really have lost everything.
But the good thing about this is that they are now free to do anything. They can let go of the past and ask themselves: who do we want to be in 5, 10, or 20 years from now?
If they realize that they've lost everything and take this is an opportunity to be 'reborn' then they can still rise from the ashes. RIM started the smartphone industry after all. If they fail to realize that they've lost everything though, then they may eventually go bankrupt, or in the best case scenario end up like Nokia, just limping along for years to come and dying a slow death.
Do I think Apple and Google will dominate the smartphone market forever? Not a chance. In fact, I think Apple is going to have a really tough go of things over the next five years with Jobs no longer around to keep that grand vision alive.
As you can tell, following my logic the initial place where RIM has to focus is on marketing. Creating a new vision for the company is a marketing / PR activity. Without it, RIM is doomed.
Yes, they have to remain competitive on the technology front, but that will not save the company.
RIM has to ask itself 'What is our place in the world? What do we mean to consumers?' It's not enough to say 'We make smartphones' (big deal, everyone makes smartphones today).
I don't know what the answer to those questions will be for RIM. I know this will sound crazy (just like my $15 dollars sounded crazy) but if I were RIM right now I'd run a huge campaign saying something to the effect "We make smartphones for the 99 per cent".
Yes, crazy, I know. Criticize it for being corny if you want. But what something like that does is show RIM is with the people and that its strategies moving forward are about people. The biggest knock on RIM today is that they don't care about their end users but rather make all their decisions based on what
carriers want (who in this case would be the one percent). In addition, the biggest knock against Apple is they lock people in to the proprietary Apple universe - which is not a 99 per cent business model, it's not about openness and freedom for the user.
Anyway, you get the drift. RIM is seen as a speeds and feeds company, versus Apple and Google who are seen as end-user centric. RIM needs to reach out to consumers and connect with them again. They also need to drive internal decision making based around a different philosophy, instead of R&D based solely on carrier demands, they need to be thinking more about the end-user. Instead of engineers making all the decisions, smart marketing people need to be at the table with an equal voice.
If Apple taught the world anything it's that you don't have to have the best product in the world to succeed, but your customers do have to care about your product. They have to support you because they believe that you THINK the way they do! This is where RIM lost its' way, the end-user stopped associated RIM as being a company that thought the same as they do.
If RIM can turn that corner, if they can emerge as a company that is built around end-users and market themselves with that theme in mind (and the marketing is the most important thing here - you could start turning this around today, even without new products), then $15 or $17 a share will ultimately turn out to be absurdly cheap and a generational buying opportunity. People would one day look back and say "I can't believe RIM once traded for 17 bucks a share".
If they fail to do this though (and do it soon) I suspect in a couple of years from now the name RIM won't even exist.
Let's hope RIM realizes that it has lost everything and is not, like Nokia, simply doing its best to tread water for as long as it can before it drowns. If it does realize this then all the things it has to do to be reborn will become evident and the years ahead will be interesting. If not, then this chapter in Canadian technology history is coming to a close.
Well, in less than six months RIM stock fell from $29 in July (at the time I wrote the blog entry) to $17.30 today. While it's not the $15 dollar target, it's close enough for me to say that I came pretty close to the bullseye. I thought it would take at least 12 months, but it's occurred even faster. (And for PR folks out there, I personally believe that at least 50 per cent of that lost value is tied to PR damage the company has taken as opposed to fundamental issues).
There is a positive though
On the positive side I really believe in the Neitzschean concept that "It's only after you've lost everything that you are free to do anything." I wish I could find the actual Neitzsche quote though which is more akin to 'It's only after one has died while alive that one can be reborn and free to truly live for the first time." (I'm going to search for the actual quote and will update at a later time).
The notion behind this saying is that at some point during the growth process one becomes stuck in habitual notions and perspectives that drive decision making. And once something becomes habitual it becomes a trap that limits one's ability to react and move in to the future with a fresh and open perspective and mind.
Really, everything going on the world right now is a function of this phenomena. Politicians, banks, world governments are all trying to tackle the issues we face through habitual forms of decision making as opposed to envisioning a future we wish to have and then figuring out how to make that future a reality. Right now, the decisions we should be making simply run up against too much 'habitual' opposition, we've lost our ability to 'dream' if you will and instead are trapped in a 'process' frame of mind (which is why nothing is getting fixed). This is where we get the notion that we are stuck in a 'system' and that the 'system' is broken - it's really not the system that is broken, but rather our way of thinking (for we are, after all, the system).
Anyway, that's a separate issue. What I'm trying to say about RIM is that the positive thing about their current situation is that they've now lost everything. They haven't gone bankrupt, but they've lost everything that made them who they were - they've lost their market leadership, they've lost their brand, they've lost share value, they really have lost everything.
But the good thing about this is that they are now free to do anything. They can let go of the past and ask themselves: who do we want to be in 5, 10, or 20 years from now?
If they realize that they've lost everything and take this is an opportunity to be 'reborn' then they can still rise from the ashes. RIM started the smartphone industry after all. If they fail to realize that they've lost everything though, then they may eventually go bankrupt, or in the best case scenario end up like Nokia, just limping along for years to come and dying a slow death.
Do I think Apple and Google will dominate the smartphone market forever? Not a chance. In fact, I think Apple is going to have a really tough go of things over the next five years with Jobs no longer around to keep that grand vision alive.
As you can tell, following my logic the initial place where RIM has to focus is on marketing. Creating a new vision for the company is a marketing / PR activity. Without it, RIM is doomed.
Yes, they have to remain competitive on the technology front, but that will not save the company.
RIM has to ask itself 'What is our place in the world? What do we mean to consumers?' It's not enough to say 'We make smartphones' (big deal, everyone makes smartphones today).
I don't know what the answer to those questions will be for RIM. I know this will sound crazy (just like my $15 dollars sounded crazy) but if I were RIM right now I'd run a huge campaign saying something to the effect "We make smartphones for the 99 per cent".
Yes, crazy, I know. Criticize it for being corny if you want. But what something like that does is show RIM is with the people and that its strategies moving forward are about people. The biggest knock on RIM today is that they don't care about their end users but rather make all their decisions based on what
carriers want (who in this case would be the one percent). In addition, the biggest knock against Apple is they lock people in to the proprietary Apple universe - which is not a 99 per cent business model, it's not about openness and freedom for the user.
Anyway, you get the drift. RIM is seen as a speeds and feeds company, versus Apple and Google who are seen as end-user centric. RIM needs to reach out to consumers and connect with them again. They also need to drive internal decision making based around a different philosophy, instead of R&D based solely on carrier demands, they need to be thinking more about the end-user. Instead of engineers making all the decisions, smart marketing people need to be at the table with an equal voice.
If Apple taught the world anything it's that you don't have to have the best product in the world to succeed, but your customers do have to care about your product. They have to support you because they believe that you THINK the way they do! This is where RIM lost its' way, the end-user stopped associated RIM as being a company that thought the same as they do.
If RIM can turn that corner, if they can emerge as a company that is built around end-users and market themselves with that theme in mind (and the marketing is the most important thing here - you could start turning this around today, even without new products), then $15 or $17 a share will ultimately turn out to be absurdly cheap and a generational buying opportunity. People would one day look back and say "I can't believe RIM once traded for 17 bucks a share".
If they fail to do this though (and do it soon) I suspect in a couple of years from now the name RIM won't even exist.
Let's hope RIM realizes that it has lost everything and is not, like Nokia, simply doing its best to tread water for as long as it can before it drowns. If it does realize this then all the things it has to do to be reborn will become evident and the years ahead will be interesting. If not, then this chapter in Canadian technology history is coming to a close.
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