A while ago I did a post on the 10 variables I thought were key to us coming out of recession. Admittedly I had a bit of a dire tone with the post entitled Top 10 Reasons This Recession Will Never End.
I did an update back in May and reviewed the variables and concluded that things were not any better.
I figured it was time for another review, so without further adue, here we go:
It's not surprising when you view the economy in these terms that after today the markets are now lower than they were at the beginning of the year (if you invested a dollar in an index in January, today you've made exactly nothing).
People keep pumping up the markets by pointing out that comapanies are sitting on tons of cash and that politicians have done quantitative easing and will support a recovery by whatever means they have to.
Yet, despite these things the market remains down for the count, and with good reason. None of the the underlying variables that reflect actual economic health are present.
Some people predict that we could have a Japan-style lost decade. Personally I don't think so. The one thing you have to give the US is that their citizens do go crazy when pushed to the wall. I think if we enter a full-fledged second crash there will be no turning back. You'll have a revolution in the US - the only question will be whether it will be peaceful (ie. massive increases in corporate taxes, selective default on debt, radical restructuring of government, etc.) or non-peaceful (ala Egypt or think the anti-war movement of the 60s, but this time using the internet).
Hopefully the economy can get a bounce at some point just long enough to carry us through to the 2012 election. I think the 2012 election is going to perhaps be the most contentious, vocal, Mike Tyson-esque spectacle in the past 50 or so years.
The fact that five of my 10 health indicators actually got worse in only a few months makes me wonder if we'll even make it to the elections without this powder keg being lit.
I did an update back in May and reviewed the variables and concluded that things were not any better.
I figured it was time for another review, so without further adue, here we go:
- Crashes Hurt for a long time - unchanged - so far this seems to be holding true. Three years in and the DOW just gave back all its gains for 2011 today. Unemployment hasn't budged. Not looking good.
- Until Debt do us Part - worse - debt has increased and Moody's has downgraded their view of the US debt (even though they haven't officially downgraded their AAA status).
- Eroded Trust - worse - the recent debt ceiling is yet one more reason people have to distrust politicians and the powers that be. One would be hard pressed to say people's trust in their leaders is increasing.
- Anxiety - worse - the recent debt ceiling fiasco showed that politicians are still willing to play chicken and scare the public in to supporting their positions. Scare politics, dropping stock market, high unemployment, anxiety is definitely growing not shrinking.
- Growth versus Replacement cycle - worse - Cisco just laid off 6,500. HSBC laid off 30,000. No one is thinking growth. Companies are hoarding and bunkering down, content to live off the fruits of their existing replacement cycles.
- Shareholder model breakdown - unchanged - I don't know anyone that sees the markets as a safe place to invest anymore.The longer this goes on the longer it will take for people to return to the markets. As it stands I think we may end up with an entire generation simply staying away from stocks.
- Lowest Common Denominator Thinking - unchanged - For a while there the populous sentiment seemed to be about dragging unions down so they could suffer like your non-union citizens. This hasn't gotten worse (mostly because people seem to be worried about even bigger issues - like the nation going broke).
- Globalization - unchanged - the benefits of global trade continue to have zero impact on this recession.
- Baby Boomer Cost - unchanged - thanks to passing the debt ceiling, the costs associated with baby boomers has been kicked down the road for a year or two.
- Extremism - worse - Norway psycho kills 90+ people and US politicians bring world markets to a halt playing chicken with the financial system.... the pattern of extreme (ie. unreasonable) behavior continues.
- Bonus: inflation - unchanged - Gas is up, food prices seem stable. All in all, trending the wrong way, but nonetheless relatively unchanged.
It's not surprising when you view the economy in these terms that after today the markets are now lower than they were at the beginning of the year (if you invested a dollar in an index in January, today you've made exactly nothing).
People keep pumping up the markets by pointing out that comapanies are sitting on tons of cash and that politicians have done quantitative easing and will support a recovery by whatever means they have to.
Yet, despite these things the market remains down for the count, and with good reason. None of the the underlying variables that reflect actual economic health are present.
Some people predict that we could have a Japan-style lost decade. Personally I don't think so. The one thing you have to give the US is that their citizens do go crazy when pushed to the wall. I think if we enter a full-fledged second crash there will be no turning back. You'll have a revolution in the US - the only question will be whether it will be peaceful (ie. massive increases in corporate taxes, selective default on debt, radical restructuring of government, etc.) or non-peaceful (ala Egypt or think the anti-war movement of the 60s, but this time using the internet).
Hopefully the economy can get a bounce at some point just long enough to carry us through to the 2012 election. I think the 2012 election is going to perhaps be the most contentious, vocal, Mike Tyson-esque spectacle in the past 50 or so years.
The fact that five of my 10 health indicators actually got worse in only a few months makes me wonder if we'll even make it to the elections without this powder keg being lit.
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