There's a lot of talk about the PC going extinct in the coming years as mobile devices such as tablets and smartphones replace computers. HP just announced that it is getting out of the PC business, creating further speculation that perhaps this is true.
Personally I think it's hogwash. The computing power of a tablet or smartphone is such a tiny fraction of what a computer gives you. Mobile devices are great accessories, but nothing replaces a personal computer - for storage, graphics, computing power, etc. - computers are so much more powerful than any other device in the market.
Having said that, I can understand why HP is getting out of the business. Computers are so powerful at this point that if you buy a computer today (and you can get a really good one for under 500 bucks) odds are you won't need to replace it for at least five years. Really the only thing on your PC that you might have to upgrade is your video card, and even then, it's only if you play video games or do extensive work with video editing.
Combine low margins with a very long replacement cycle and the fact that as computing power increases exponentially people will probably spend their money on the peripherals to their PC (because their PC won't need to be upgraded or replaced), and it makes total sense why HP would jettison the PC side of their business.
But this doesn't mean that the PC is dead. Even with cloud computing and virtualization people are still going to want their own little PC workstation where they are in control of their environment (at least in the home environment). It's feasible in the corporate world the PC will disappear and you'll just plug-in via some monitor-terminal and access all your programs and data off a server, instead of an actualy PC. But in the home PC market, I just can't image people suddenly not having a PC in their house for at least 10 years.
I mean, a 16gb iPad costs over 500 bucks. That's insanity. For less than 500 bucks I can get a PC/laptop that is 10x as powerful, has over a terabyte of hard drive storage and that lets me do things that I simply can't do on an iPad (like graphic design). And I sure don't have to worry about battery life or any of issues that come with a mobile device.
Mobile devices are peripherals to the PC. No matter how much Steve Jobs would like to think the PC will die and we'll be using iPads to run our lives, I don't think it will happen any time soon. Until you can get the same utility at the same cost on your mobile device as you get on your PC, the PC will not go extinct.
So I think the death of the PC is exaggerated way too much. But it does make perfect sense that HP is moving on and leaving the PC market to smaller players that are happy to try and make a low margin, long replacement cycle product work for them. If anything, I'd be worried about Apple. While they are king of the hill right now, eventually their bread and butter (tablets and smartphones) will become a low margin, long replacement cycle product offering also (trust me, they will not be able to charge 500 bucks for a 16gb device forever).
Death of PC? No.
Birth of Peripheral Devices? Yes.
Smart move by HP? Definitely.
Personally I think it's hogwash. The computing power of a tablet or smartphone is such a tiny fraction of what a computer gives you. Mobile devices are great accessories, but nothing replaces a personal computer - for storage, graphics, computing power, etc. - computers are so much more powerful than any other device in the market.
Having said that, I can understand why HP is getting out of the business. Computers are so powerful at this point that if you buy a computer today (and you can get a really good one for under 500 bucks) odds are you won't need to replace it for at least five years. Really the only thing on your PC that you might have to upgrade is your video card, and even then, it's only if you play video games or do extensive work with video editing.
Combine low margins with a very long replacement cycle and the fact that as computing power increases exponentially people will probably spend their money on the peripherals to their PC (because their PC won't need to be upgraded or replaced), and it makes total sense why HP would jettison the PC side of their business.
But this doesn't mean that the PC is dead. Even with cloud computing and virtualization people are still going to want their own little PC workstation where they are in control of their environment (at least in the home environment). It's feasible in the corporate world the PC will disappear and you'll just plug-in via some monitor-terminal and access all your programs and data off a server, instead of an actualy PC. But in the home PC market, I just can't image people suddenly not having a PC in their house for at least 10 years.
I mean, a 16gb iPad costs over 500 bucks. That's insanity. For less than 500 bucks I can get a PC/laptop that is 10x as powerful, has over a terabyte of hard drive storage and that lets me do things that I simply can't do on an iPad (like graphic design). And I sure don't have to worry about battery life or any of issues that come with a mobile device.
Mobile devices are peripherals to the PC. No matter how much Steve Jobs would like to think the PC will die and we'll be using iPads to run our lives, I don't think it will happen any time soon. Until you can get the same utility at the same cost on your mobile device as you get on your PC, the PC will not go extinct.
So I think the death of the PC is exaggerated way too much. But it does make perfect sense that HP is moving on and leaving the PC market to smaller players that are happy to try and make a low margin, long replacement cycle product work for them. If anything, I'd be worried about Apple. While they are king of the hill right now, eventually their bread and butter (tablets and smartphones) will become a low margin, long replacement cycle product offering also (trust me, they will not be able to charge 500 bucks for a 16gb device forever).
Death of PC? No.
Birth of Peripheral Devices? Yes.
Smart move by HP? Definitely.
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