Way back in January I posted that I thought Obama was tanking his chances of a second term - Bye Bye Obama.
Recently the polls seems to support my thesis - Poll: Big drop for Obama since May.
The Pew poll released Thursday showed 41 percent of registered voters would like to see Obama re-elected while 40 percent said they would prefer a Republican to win the White House. The new numbers are significantly closer than the 11-point lead the president held in May.
I think Obama continues to dig his hole deeper. He's playing out a very risky strategy with this debt ceiling right now - he's basically using a page from Bush's playbook of fear - telling old people they won't get their cheques if the debt ceiling isn't raised.
That's total hogwash. Yes, not raising the debt ceiling will cause a crisis, but it won't result in cancelled social security cheques. The Fed holds 1.6 trillion in treasury bonds it could sell (which they don't want to sell because they like having that cushion there for future quantitative easing if you ask me), the military could be cut back, bond holders could be forced to absorb the losses until the debt ceiling was raised, state governments could implement strategies to offset shortfalls at the federal level, etc.
It's similar to Bush in the following way. Iraq was a problem for Bush. They were an anti-US faction in the middle east. Which simply by being so, made it harder for the US to operate in the middle east and catch the terrorists. But, simply saying that Iraq was a pain in the neck and indirectly made it harder to catch Al'Queda wasn't enough. They needed weapons of mass destruction on the table. They needed to go over the top and really scare the American people that at any point Iraq might attack the USA.
And it worked. People genuinely feared that Iraqi terrorists might start setting off anthrax bombs in New York any day.
So yes, Iraq was problematic to whatever grand strategy the Bush administration had, but that alone would not have been enough to catalyze support among the American population (it took the WMD threat to generate that support).
Obama has a similar situation. Yes, the debt ceiling, if not raised, will cause a crisis. The stock market will tank, interest rates will go up, treasury bonds with triple A ratings will be downgraded (basically screwing people holding US debt), the dollar will weaken,the value of people's 401ks will get hit, inflation will ramp up and unemployment will probably go higher also.
Yet, even in that disaster scenario, the damage primarily will be felt by people with money. The banks and institutional investors will take the biggest hit, followed by middle class investors and ultimately the working Joe will find it harder to get a job (a situation they've already been in for three years).
So yes, the debt ceiling is a problem, but the damage that will occur should a default occur would be mostly to the rich (initially at least).
So Obama, like George Bush did with WMDs, had to pull out a fear card that would catalyze every American. And that card was social security - if the debt ceiling isn't raised, old people with barely enough money to live may find themselves with nothing because the gov can't send them their cheques anymore.
I never thought I'd see Obama do this kind of politiking. And clearly he must believe that it will work. That it will rally public support for him as the politician who is trying to protect the poor and keep their social security cheques going (just like WMDs made Bush look like he was protecting America from imminent attack).
But the reality is that he's merely scaring people in to giving the Democrats what they want, which is more money to spend. The goal is to make the Republicans look like the bad guys who want to screw old people out of their cheques. (The absurd irony in all of this is how it's more Obama who is looking after Wall Street's interests right now - ala Geithner and Bernake - than it is the Republicans).
The message is working for now. Bill Maher recently ran a mock GOP motivational video (a joke that the video is what Republicans watch to motivate themselves).
I'm not saying the Republicans are any better than the Democrats, but that's the point, both parties are behaving like fools. Obama's scare tactics have only temporarily shifted more of the blame on to the Republicans.
I'm beginning to think that what is really going on in all this is that both parties realize that in a year from now the economy (and America) will still be a giant mess. The recession will be four years old at that point and things will still be as bad (at least unemployment) as four years prior.
So winning the election based on popularity probably isn't in the cards because most voters will be mad at all the politicians. So the winner will basically come down to who is least hated (as opposed to who is most loved).
So what you get are these games of chicken where each side tries to make the other side look like the big bad boogeyman. And it's also why you see Obama doing things I'd never expect him to do, like scaring old people.
Republicans aside, I think Obama continues to make big mistakes. While WMDs worked, they ultimately made Bush look like a liar and cheat. Similarly, Obama's use of scare tactics, will in the end, make him look like a politician willing to sink to any level OR a politician who doesn't understand what is going on.
The Obama brand upon election was the 'Great New Hope' - his brand today is 'Who the hell is this guy and what is going on?' His saving grace so far has been the disdain people have for Bush. But as time marches on people will forget about Bush and judge Obama based on his own accomplishments (or lack thereof).
There's even talk among Democrats of running a Democratic candidate against Obama in the primaries - which won't happen, but it goes to show you how bad it's getting that his own people are thinking of turning on him come election time.
Way back in January writing a post like Bye Bye Obama might have seemed a bit far fetched, but as time ticks on I don't think my views are that crazy.
And my views are primarily determined by simply looking at everything that is unfolding through the lens of PR. Obama is making really bad PR moves and has been since day one. When the focus should have been jobs, he focused on health care. When he should be talking straight to the people (who thought that's what they'd get from him) he's pulling out scare tactics. When he should have brought troops home, he surged (although getting Bin Laden gives him a pass on that front).
Not to mention that his biggest flaw has simply been not speaking to the concerns of the people. Every now and then he does and people remember 'Hey, that's the guy I voted for.' - but then he stops for a few months and gets all professorial again. It seems as though he only pulls out the 'man of the people' speeches when he's in trouble or wants something from the public. That's a strategy which people see through in time though, which is why his popularity is sinking fast.
All of these things, from a PR perspective, in light of the times, are simply too much for his brand to survive in my opinion.
But who knows, only time will tell. Perhaps he'll pull it all together by 2012.
If not he can dust himself off and go make millions giving speeches and consulting on boards and can sit back in the evening and watch as some new president presides over the mess that America became under his and Bush's watch.
Recently the polls seems to support my thesis - Poll: Big drop for Obama since May.
The Pew poll released Thursday showed 41 percent of registered voters would like to see Obama re-elected while 40 percent said they would prefer a Republican to win the White House. The new numbers are significantly closer than the 11-point lead the president held in May.
I think Obama continues to dig his hole deeper. He's playing out a very risky strategy with this debt ceiling right now - he's basically using a page from Bush's playbook of fear - telling old people they won't get their cheques if the debt ceiling isn't raised.
That's total hogwash. Yes, not raising the debt ceiling will cause a crisis, but it won't result in cancelled social security cheques. The Fed holds 1.6 trillion in treasury bonds it could sell (which they don't want to sell because they like having that cushion there for future quantitative easing if you ask me), the military could be cut back, bond holders could be forced to absorb the losses until the debt ceiling was raised, state governments could implement strategies to offset shortfalls at the federal level, etc.
It's similar to Bush in the following way. Iraq was a problem for Bush. They were an anti-US faction in the middle east. Which simply by being so, made it harder for the US to operate in the middle east and catch the terrorists. But, simply saying that Iraq was a pain in the neck and indirectly made it harder to catch Al'Queda wasn't enough. They needed weapons of mass destruction on the table. They needed to go over the top and really scare the American people that at any point Iraq might attack the USA.
And it worked. People genuinely feared that Iraqi terrorists might start setting off anthrax bombs in New York any day.
So yes, Iraq was problematic to whatever grand strategy the Bush administration had, but that alone would not have been enough to catalyze support among the American population (it took the WMD threat to generate that support).
Obama has a similar situation. Yes, the debt ceiling, if not raised, will cause a crisis. The stock market will tank, interest rates will go up, treasury bonds with triple A ratings will be downgraded (basically screwing people holding US debt), the dollar will weaken,the value of people's 401ks will get hit, inflation will ramp up and unemployment will probably go higher also.
Yet, even in that disaster scenario, the damage primarily will be felt by people with money. The banks and institutional investors will take the biggest hit, followed by middle class investors and ultimately the working Joe will find it harder to get a job (a situation they've already been in for three years).
So yes, the debt ceiling is a problem, but the damage that will occur should a default occur would be mostly to the rich (initially at least).
So Obama, like George Bush did with WMDs, had to pull out a fear card that would catalyze every American. And that card was social security - if the debt ceiling isn't raised, old people with barely enough money to live may find themselves with nothing because the gov can't send them their cheques anymore.
I never thought I'd see Obama do this kind of politiking. And clearly he must believe that it will work. That it will rally public support for him as the politician who is trying to protect the poor and keep their social security cheques going (just like WMDs made Bush look like he was protecting America from imminent attack).
But the reality is that he's merely scaring people in to giving the Democrats what they want, which is more money to spend. The goal is to make the Republicans look like the bad guys who want to screw old people out of their cheques. (The absurd irony in all of this is how it's more Obama who is looking after Wall Street's interests right now - ala Geithner and Bernake - than it is the Republicans).
The message is working for now. Bill Maher recently ran a mock GOP motivational video (a joke that the video is what Republicans watch to motivate themselves).
I'm not saying the Republicans are any better than the Democrats, but that's the point, both parties are behaving like fools. Obama's scare tactics have only temporarily shifted more of the blame on to the Republicans.
I'm beginning to think that what is really going on in all this is that both parties realize that in a year from now the economy (and America) will still be a giant mess. The recession will be four years old at that point and things will still be as bad (at least unemployment) as four years prior.
So winning the election based on popularity probably isn't in the cards because most voters will be mad at all the politicians. So the winner will basically come down to who is least hated (as opposed to who is most loved).
Republicans aside, I think Obama continues to make big mistakes. While WMDs worked, they ultimately made Bush look like a liar and cheat. Similarly, Obama's use of scare tactics, will in the end, make him look like a politician willing to sink to any level OR a politician who doesn't understand what is going on.
The Obama brand upon election was the 'Great New Hope' - his brand today is 'Who the hell is this guy and what is going on?' His saving grace so far has been the disdain people have for Bush. But as time marches on people will forget about Bush and judge Obama based on his own accomplishments (or lack thereof).
There's even talk among Democrats of running a Democratic candidate against Obama in the primaries - which won't happen, but it goes to show you how bad it's getting that his own people are thinking of turning on him come election time.
Way back in January writing a post like Bye Bye Obama might have seemed a bit far fetched, but as time ticks on I don't think my views are that crazy.
And my views are primarily determined by simply looking at everything that is unfolding through the lens of PR. Obama is making really bad PR moves and has been since day one. When the focus should have been jobs, he focused on health care. When he should be talking straight to the people (who thought that's what they'd get from him) he's pulling out scare tactics. When he should have brought troops home, he surged (although getting Bin Laden gives him a pass on that front).
Not to mention that his biggest flaw has simply been not speaking to the concerns of the people. Every now and then he does and people remember 'Hey, that's the guy I voted for.' - but then he stops for a few months and gets all professorial again. It seems as though he only pulls out the 'man of the people' speeches when he's in trouble or wants something from the public. That's a strategy which people see through in time though, which is why his popularity is sinking fast.
All of these things, from a PR perspective, in light of the times, are simply too much for his brand to survive in my opinion.
But who knows, only time will tell. Perhaps he'll pull it all together by 2012.
If not he can dust himself off and go make millions giving speeches and consulting on boards and can sit back in the evening and watch as some new president presides over the mess that America became under his and Bush's watch.
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