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Bye Bye Obama

Wow. I was thoroughly disappointed by Obama's State of the Union speech tonight. He basically took the worst of all courses of actions.



He didn't really focus too much on his successes, he didn't admit to any shortcomings, and he really didn't articulate what was in progress (ie. what was going to get done by the end of his term). It was a lot of fluff and center-of-the-road messaging.

What he did do a lot of though was articulate the issues. But at this stage of the game, halfway through his presidency, to still be addressing issues from a professorial angle is simply boring. Great, you know what's wrong, but two years in no one wants to hear about what's wrong, they want to know what you've been doing over the past two years to fix the things that are broken.

The primary highlights of his speech on the 'to do' front were to have 80 per cent of Americans using high-speed rail within the next 25 years and to have 80 per cent of America's electricity coming from clean sources by 2035.

He also encouraged America to rise to the challenges ahead of it and to embrace innovation (whatever that means - America is already doing this to the extent that it can).

So to sum up his speech was: Let's work together, let's get things done by 2035 and America it's up to you to get going again.

What Obama showed was that he is a great orator, but that he is not an innovator - that he himself (or his administration) does not have a plan to create jobs or spur innovation, or the will to take brash steps on either of these fronts. Even his points on education are applicable for generations down the road, but have no impact on the next two years.

I hate to say it, because I thought his Yes We Can campaign was brilliant, but I think Obama is going to turn out to be a lame-duck president at the end of his term. Which means I think he will be a one-term president. While as an orator he is great, he failed to show the American people that he understands the issues they are facing.

He even had the hubris to make a comment that the stock market has come roaring back.

WHAT?!

His speech writer should be fired for such a statement. The DOW is a tad below 12,000. At its peak it was 14,000. So those with investments (which includes almost everyone trying to retire) their net worth is still 15 per cent below what it was in 2008 AND it's failed to appreciate at the typical 7 per cent per year associated with a standard mutual fund portfolio. So basically, people's net worth as tied to the stock market, is about 37 per cent less than it should be!  (and that's if they stayed invested, if they didn't they may have simply eaten their losses and gone home).

But somehow that is tantamount to the stock market roaring back? That's like saying you went from a coma to waking up and that amounts to your health roaring back. Hogwash! You still aren't anywhere near as healthy as you use to be prior to being in a coma!


It will be interesting to see if I'm correct in my view that as a result of Obama's 'middle-of-the-road' approach to messaging at this point he is going to lose the passionate support he enjoyed only two years ago.

He's lost his shine and over the next two years, especially if unemployment remains high, he will start to rust in the public eye.

I believe he could have turned all this to his advantage by focusing strongly on how his change agenda was still in progress and that he, like the American public, was frustrated by how slowly it was going. While the repeal of 'don't ask don't tell' is great, it simply doesn't offset millions of Americans sliding out of the middle class and in to poverty or the fact that nothing of substance (like the bail-outs for the banks for instance) has been done to help the American people get back on their feet.

This was his chance to show that he was still connected with every day Americans and instead he spoke about issues that matter 20 years from now or that matter to corporate leaders and political policy makers.

So I think it's bye bye Obama at this stage of the game. I think he'll be remembered as a good president and one that oversaw America surviving a great recession, but I don't think he's got anything left to run on next time around. Yes We Can only works once... 'Trust me, Yes We Can if you give me another four years' simply won't be enough to win him relection.

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